The roar of the baganci has died down and the Red Square in Moscow is empty again. A traditional parade was held in the Russian capital to commemorate the 81st anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II. Victory Day is one of the most important holidays in the country, but this year the official celebrations were more moderate.
Whether it was the equipment parading around Red Square – there was none, or the number of foreign guests – it was modest, the celebrations were not jubilee.
Only nine people arrived from foreign countries. As expected, the Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, the closest ally, the president of Kazakhstan Kasym-Žomart Tokayev, and who is also worth naming: the Slovak prime minister Robert Fico.
The Slovak Prime Minister had a special mission in Moscow. As Kremlin press spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed, Fico intended to deliver a message to the Russian leader from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he recently met. Dmytro Lytvyn, adviser to the Ukrainian president, revealed what its contents might be.
“Prime Minister Fico specifically asked what Ukraine’s position is. President Zelenskyy answered that we want an end to the war, we need dignified solutions for this, and Ukraine is ready to meet at the level of leaders in a meaningful format so that just such solutions exist. Prime Minister Fico will probably communicate in this spirit,” Lytvyn told the media.
Without wanting to be cynical, I believe that Putin listened to Mr. Fitz, but informed him that Ukraine did not want the war to end, or else it would withdraw from “Russian territory.” If the Slovak prime minister had any hope of being a dove of peace, it was clearly useless.
And it will show soon. When the ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump ends on May 11, the fighting on the Ukrainian front will flare up again with great intensity.
Putin came out of the bunker
But what is more important: Putin peeked out of the bunker. The Russian president appeared on Red Square, where he gave a speech in front of the assembled Russian and North Korean soldiers. However, he did not announce anything fundamental. Neither the end of the war, nor mobilization, nor even any threats towards Europe.
In recent days, Western media, citing unnamed European secret services, have reported that Putin is spending more and more time in shelters for fear of assassination or drone attack.
Russia’s Federal Protective Service (FSO), which is in charge of protecting top officials, is said to have significantly strengthened his protection in recent months. Therefore, Putin no longer spends time in his villa and hardly appears in public or at headquarters.
“The Kremlin and Vladimir Putin himself are concerned about the possible leakage of sensitive information, as well as the risk of a conspiracy or attempted coup against the Russian president. He is particularly concerned about the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite,” reports the website of the CNN television channel, referring to the European secret service.
Fear is supposed to be caused by the successful operation Pavuchina from June last year, thanks to which Ukrainian drones managed to destroy and damage several Russian strategic bombers deep in the rear.
And fears in the Kremlin are said to have increased after US commandos captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro at a base outside Caracas.
Fears of a possible attack or coup have risen since the US attacked Iran in March.
Life in isolation
The FSO has significantly narrowed the list of places that the president regularly visits. Putin and his family no longer go to their villa near Moscow or to the residence in Valdai, near which Ukrainian drones targeting oil infrastructure flew.
The Russian president spends more and more time in the bunkers, where he deals with the details of the fight. He also spent several weeks in a bunker in the Krasnodar region in the south of Russia. It is not clear whether it was Putin’s favorite resort of Sochi.
That is very interesting information. Mainstream Russian media do not talk about Vladimir Putin’s privacy. And Mr. Kremlin himself does not mention him. At the same time, it is not a matter of the last almost five years of war. Putin is practically silent about his life behind the walls of the Kremlin or private residences.
In this respect, his biography is uncharacteristically voyeuristic First hand (Ot pervogo lica – interviews with Vladimir Putin) from 2000, where he describes various life events. The vast majority of other books about Putin try to analyze him as a political figure, a strongman, a savior or, on the contrary, the ruin of Russia.
It is quite likely that the Russian president is genuinely concerned about a Ukrainian attack or kidnapping (hardly by Donald Trump, though one never knows). Although it may seem a little absurd, since the beginning of the war in Ukraine there has been a kind of unwritten agreement that neither Kiev nor Moscow will attack each other’s top officials and government buildings.
And indeed, the Ukrainians are trying to eliminate Russian generals or leading propagandists, but no attacks have been made on Putin or Medvedev, on Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin or on the mastermind of Russian finances, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, at least according to what we know from open sources.
Yes, Putin avoids public meetings. Journalists calculated that while last year he made at least 17 public appearances and trips and repeatedly arrived at military headquarters, this year he appeared in public for only the second time on April 27, when he visited the school of modern gymnastics in his native St. Petersburg. This was followed by a meeting with representatives of ethnic minorities in Moscow on April 30.
At the same time, in the first three months of this year, Putin participated in only 50 events where a select public could come, while last year in the same period there were 70 and 110 the year before.
I personally don’t see anything sensational about it. Putin does not like public events. He had to overcome himself in 2024, when presidential elections were held in Russia and he had to appear in public more often, much to his displeasure. But when the need to be seen subsided, Putin went into his traditional low-profile mode.
It cannot be ruled out that this is not only Putin’s nature, but also the consequences of the covid pandemic. It’s no secret that events associated with the Russian president are still being tested for covid more than three years after the main virus threat has subsided.
Therefore, I would not look for any extra sensation in it. Putin is not a young man. He fears for his health and safety. The latter is almost a normal thing in the atmosphere of the new reality, when the Russian regime is strengthening its control over society.
Shoigu as a coup plotter? Unlikely
However, I find it sensational the claim, which was also made by the Western media with reference to the European secret service, that there is even the slightest possibility that ex-Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu would carry out an anti-Putin coup. With the support of the army.
I can hardly imagine a “duck” more distant from reality in connection with Shoigu. The former head of the Russian Ministry of Defense did not enjoy significant popularity in the army. The corruption that has grown through the Ministry of Defense is one of the key obstacles to Russia’s inability to fight effectively – this is also Shoigu’s legacy. And they know it very well in the Russian army.
Shoigu was a favorite of the people twenty years ago and even deeper in the past. He had charisma. But he never had ambitions to become president. Neither Russian elites nor society would welcome him enthusiastically on the Kremlin throne. His influence within the power system was significantly reduced after he was removed from his ministerial post by Putin and became Secretary of the Security Council.
A coup in Russia is not entirely out of the question. The atmosphere in the country is tense. The Russians, tamed by restrictions and repressions, will probably not decide to revolt.
A coup led by a representative of the elites with the support of the secret services is not just a fantasy. But even in this case, the country would have to be on the verge of collapse – economic rather than political. Because a coup would mean the dismantling of the current regime, the dismantling of its guarantor and patron – Putin, and a jump into the vortex of uncertainty.
Source: Postoj
